European heatwaves: Link to large‐scale circulation patterns and intraseasonal drivers

This study examines the European heatwaves' predictability at subseasonal timescales. Land surface feedbacks and tropical convection, due to their variability intraseasonal timescales, are taken into consideration potential role in extending beyond medium range (10 days) is explored. A classification of heatwaves five heatwave types used discriminate effects among different types. The computed terms circulation patterns. By inferring near-surface temperature through atmospheric circulation, we aim identify predictable component events. All patterns characterized by persistent anticyclonic anomalies located over region with maximum temperatures. We show that soil moisture deficit not a required precondition for occurrence most Europe. However, events southern Europe exhibit some sensitivity dry conditions. use simplified index describe dominant mode convection index, based on precipitation anomalies, represents evolution Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO). find episodes strong BSISO amplitudes enhanced India, Bay Bengal China sea favour Russia. results highlight enhancing extreme